EU engagement in Central Asia: a reality check

31.03.2026

Russia's invasion of Ukraine impacted power dynamics in Central Asia. A new study based on over forty interviews from the region analyses the shifts and what they mean for the EU.

Abstract honeycomb structure with flags from Central Asian countries.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has impacted the power dynamics in Central Asia. A new publication of the FES Regional Office for International Cooperation | Cooperation & Peace explores how influence in the region is shifting between Russia, China, and the EU, and where new opportunities are emerging.

The analysis is based on over forty interviews with experts and policymakers conducted in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Vienna, and Berlin.

Main theses

Russia's war in Ukraine has not fundamentally reshaped the power balance in Central Asia, as the region continues to navigate between multiple major powers
Russia remains the key political and security actor in the region, but a decline in soft power is noticeable
In the meantime, China is advancing its economic influence in order to embed its technologies and standards
The EU, while being the region's largest foreign investor, is struggling to get visibility on the ground
Regional cooperation is increasing for the first time in decades, allowing for more cross-border trade, joint ventures, travel and expert exchanges.

The paper highlights several promising avenues for more EU engagement and cooperation, including water management, synergies with Chinese interests, and the support of vocational training.

Roundtable in Brussels

On 25 March, the FES EU Office hosted an expert roundtable. Authors Alexandra Dienes and Sabrina Kaschowitz presented their report and discussed findings with policymakers.

Study authors Alexandra Dienes and Sabrina Kaschowitz during the roundtable discussion.

Dienes, Alexandra ; Kaschowitz, Sabrina