Perspective Paper: EU engagement in Central Asia - a reality check

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has impacted the power dynamics in Central Asia. A new publication of the FES Regional Office for International Cooperation | Cooperation & Peace explores how influence in the region is shifting between Russia, China, and the EU, and where new opportunities are emerging. 

The analysis is based on over forty interviews with experts and policymakers conducted in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Vienna, and Berlin.

Main theses

• Russia's war in Ukraine has not fundamentally reshaped the power balance in Central Asia, as the region continues to navigate between multiple major powers
• Russia remains the key political and security actor in the region, but a decline in soft power is noticeable
• In the meantime, China is advancing its economic influence in order to embed its technologies and standards
• The EU, while being the region's largest foreign investor, is struggling to get visibility on the ground
• Regional cooperation is increasing for the first time in decades, allowing for more cross-border trade, joint ventures, travel and expert exchanges.

The paper highlights several promising avenues for more EU engagement and cooperation, including water management, synergies with Chinese interests, and the support of vocational training.