Foresight Ukraine - Four Scenarios for the Development of Ukraine

The crisis in international dialogue with Russia is particularly acute when it comes to the subject of Ukraine, the main locus of the breakdown’s origins. Except for the relatively narrow focus on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, strategic dialogue about the crisis among Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans, and Russians is difficult. This breakdown has the potential to be highly destabilizing as mistrust grows and misunderstandings multiply, creating the possibility for the conflict to escalate.

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe brought together a select, high-level group of Russians, Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians to develop four long-term scenarios for Ukraine which our experts will present in Brussels.
Considering how a set of uncertainties may play out over multiple pathways helps to challenge unstated assumptions and prejudiced assessments of the future. Moreover, the advantage of drafting multiple scenarios rather than crafting a grand strategy is that scenarios provide more clarity to decision-makers and the expert community about Ukraine’s choices and the impact of those choices for its future and that of all interested states.

Contact: Marco.Schwarz(at)fes-europe.eu